Just as UKIP falls apart. Still, it is worth noting, in the midst of the media Cameron lovefest, that three MPs elected as Tories in 2005 no longer have the whip, and two of those have now joined other parties. There are still two more years to go before the next General Election.
Half of UKIP's votes at the last European Elections - its high water mark - must have come from Labour supporters, or Lib Dems in, especially, the West Country.
Add together the Tory and UKIP figures in London, the West Country, any of the three Northern regions, or either of the Midland regions, and you get a ridiculously high figure. But add half of UKIP's figure to the Lib Dem one in the West Country or the Labour one anywhere else, and it makes perfect sense.
So there's no point in the Tories courting UKIP voters as UKIP falls apart. Half of them were never Tories anyway.
Meanwhile, those Labour supporters who gave their votes to UKIP at the last European Elections will have somewhere to go at the next ones. And then at the General Election a year later. Not even the Electoral Commission would dare refuse to register a party set up by 12 sitting MEPs. Watch this space...
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The rumours are true, then. Go for it.
ReplyDeleteThe North East is the hardest nut to crack. You'll need a third of the vote, as you know. But that's only the votes cast. It's a matter of getting the vote out. And you're already well on the way there, although I trust that you wouldn't want that discussed on the Net just yet.
The only think that could stop you would be the same extremely localised nuisance candidate whose vote-splitting put in a Lib Dem instead of a Ukipper last time. Hopefully the Old Right nationally and internationally will organise to make sure he doesn't do the same to you.
Strasbourg next year, Westminster the year after.
ReplyDeleteIf the Pro Life Allliance had put up here in 1997 they would have cut Hilary Armstrong's majority in half because she was also so unpopular over the hospital. She would have been kicked upstairs in time for 2001 and someone pro life and pro family put in as the Labour candidate instead.
But better late than never. When she votes for human animal hybrids, saviour siblings and the abolition of fatherhood then she will hand the seat to you on a plate. Remember that you only need to be the first past the post and that turnout is going to be extremely low. You'll walk it.
How many actual votes would you need next year?
ReplyDeleteBased on the last time (turnout is going to be much lower this time, but it will do us good to work on this premise), in terms of thousands of votes:
ReplyDeleteEast Midlands - 200
East - 220
London - 160
North East - 140
North West - 260
Northern Ireland - 100 (first preferences, STV election for three seats - we already have ties to up to four constituencies there that are each, although there is some overlap, at least as large as that)
Scotland - 160 (hardcore Unionism alone is at least four times that size, and now has nowhere else to go)
South East – 180
South West - 210 (I'll have to check how many people there are in Gibraltar - we could get practically every vote there, just for a start)
Wales - 160 (absolutely nobody else now speaks for the vast English-speaking working class there)
West Midlands - 200
Yorkshire and The Humber - 230
I think that 12 seats are perfectly within our grasp. And if we don't get them, then at least eight of them will go to the BNP. Which would anybody really prefer?
11,934 votes were cast in Gibraltar last time, out of a possible 20,740.
ReplyDeleteThat's a lot of people you could reach with your combination of Old Labour economics and employment policy, British nationalism and Catholic morality. Very Gibraltarian but not currently on the ballot paper for Strasbourg because not supported by any of the UK parties.
Just to clarify then - the BPA will be standing for 12 European Parliament seats? And you will personally be standing in the North East? Gosh, that's exciting. I will be fully behind you. I don't know that much about the history of European elections though - has such a new party in any member state ever won 12 seats in one go before? Or even half as many?
ReplyDeleteIt'll probably say "Independent" on the ballot papers, but yes, this is the beginning in earnest of our new political movement.
ReplyDeleteRemember, this is regional, not national, voting. Some regions contain more of our obvious supporters than others. However, proper mobilisation, at extremely little cost these days, really could put all 12 of our candidates in.
Ukip won 12 seats from none last time.
ReplyDeleteI know that this is an obvious one for Peter Hitchens, but have you also thought about Richard Littlejohn?